Recommended Reading: Daylight Ambush

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A Kitchen Sink Coup In Waiting

As far back as early 2021, after the January 6th coup attempt (and it was a coup attempt, or an autogolpe if you prefer) I’ve been writing about my belief that Trump would again be nominated in 2024 and that the GOP and the larger fascist American right would respond to a potential loss with another attempt to steal the election, or coup attempt in the colloquial sense. When folks have asked me what form I think that coup attempt will take, I have confidently answered “all of them” because nothing about the GOP’s behavior since Biden’s 2020 election win has lead me to believe otherwise; they’ve stacked the judiciary, taken over election boards, passed laws that increase local official’s power to dispute elections, maintained close ties with fascist militias and police unions, and spent years using their political influencers and candidates to prime the pump by declaring Democrats will “steal” the 2024 election before it even happens. They’re not doing this shit for laughs folks, and as such I’ve told anyone who asked me that stopping Trump in 2024 will require beating these guys at the ballot box, in the House of Representatives, in the courts, and yes in the streets.

Unfortunately, despite the preponderance of evidence indicating that this will be the case, it remains hard for everyday Americans who have an unwarranted faith in the power of their country’s norms and institutions to imagine any of this happening; despite many of them having lived through not only the 2021 Trump coup attempt, but also the 2000 election in which the GOP used an Astroturf riot and a loyal Supreme Court to install George W. Bush in the White House. Contemplating a multi-pronged, full party coup attempt by the GOP and supported by the courts is just too horrible and “out there” for most people to wrap their brains around, so they don’t try to do so. Unfortunately however, the fascists running Trump’s MAGA cult and the Republican Party have no such qualms, so in an effort to catch non-fascists up to speed, let’s look at this gravely serious August 29th, 2024 article by Kenny Bruno on Truthout for some clue about how the “legalist” portions of a potential GOP coup might look:

Here’s How Trump’s GOP Could Be Preparing to Contest the 2024 Election

“The Electoral Count Reform Act did not eliminate all procedural loopholes, as law professors Lawrence Lessig and Matthew Seligman describe in their book, How to Steal a Presidential Election. In fact, they identify several ways that a presidential election can be stolen. While every scenario requires a number of “what-ifs,” we are kidding ourselves if we think Trump and the MAGA GOP won’t try every maneuver imaginable. As the January 6 Committee documented, this cohort followed multiple potential paths toward stealing the last election with much less prep time; this time, they’ve had four years. A New York Times investigation documented that, in fact, the Republican Party has a “wide- ranging and methodical” plan to contest a Trump loss.”

The scenario laid out in this article involves multiple moving parts and is too long to quote here in full, so I encourage you to read the whole thing. But the quick and dirty version is that with control of the House, Trump-loyal election boards, and in-pocket Governors, the GOP could simply declare Trump and themselves the winner, and then push the matter to the Supreme Court where they are likely to obtain what amounts to a “judicial coup” and a Trump presidency. Furthermore this article only vaguely mentions the fact that this process will undoubtedly be supported by open threats of violence and possibly even acts of right wing terrorism, which will function to strongly discourage anyone from opposing this game of Constitutional Simon Says until it’s a fait accompli. Again, I cannot stress to you that despite what you’ve learned in civics classes at school, none of this is impossible and given the GOP’s open preparations, it would be foolish to assume that it’s unlikely either.

All of which brings me to the larger public’s extremely poor understand of what fascism is, and how it works. The vast majority of people in this country tend to assume that fascism happens via a sort of “chud rush” where armed nazis storm the centers of power and force everyone to obey at gunpoint; an image only bolstered by the objectively half-assed coup attempt Trump and his loyalists engineered on January 6th, 2021. This however is wrong, and leads many folks to a false sense of security in this grave situation. Fascism is, and always has been, a legalist doctrine, installed from the top down and merely *backed up* by reactionary violence. When the nazis come to your door, they’ll be wearing badges and empowered by men in judges robes just as they were in Nazi Germany. Given that SCOTUS has already granted itself the power to be “king maker” under U.S. Law, we’re not as far away from that scenario as you have been led to believe.

While I’ve noted that fascism is primarily a legalist doctrine, enforced through judicially-empowered mechanisms and the direct takeover of the state, it’s also important to understand that none of this precludes the application of right wing extremist violence in the form of terrorism, militias, and rioting as part of a fascist power grab. Although these are not the primary methods by which a fascist order seizes control over states and societies, the fear, disruption, and chaos these people and events can sow have historically acted to buttress the ascension of fascist movements to power in “liberal democracies” throughout the history of fascism in the Pig Empire. While these irregular forces of violent reaction are not officially attached to the political movements seizing control through fascist methods, they are invariably intimately connected to the would-be fascist power structure and often take their cues from that structure by a variety of second hand methods and concealed hierarchies. Thus for example, when antifascist observers heard Trump asking a known fascist street gang, the Proud Boys, to “stand back and stand by” it was immediately understood that while the Proud Boys weren’t directly connected to the Trump campaign in an official capacity, they were certainly working *with* Trump to accomplish goals important to the larger U.S. fascist movement; which of course was borne out by the intimate involvement of key Proud Boys leaders in the January 6th, 2021 coup attempt Trump launched to try and overturn Joe Biden’s election victory.

Of course, the failure of that coup attempt and the arrest of some of the group’s leaders have largely relegated the Proud Boys themselves as an afterthought here in 2024, but that doesn’t mean the threat of fascist street gangs working in concert with the American fascist political movement have gone away; the lessons street nazis learned from the supposed fall of the Proud Boys have simply been ported over to new groups aligned with the U.S. fascist movement, like for example Patriot Front, or various white nationalist “Active Clubs.” Furthermore, it must be understood that the Proud Boys were not the only, or even the most dangerous militant fascist group available to serve the needs of Trump and the larger fascist movement; that title likely belongs to various militarized reactionary militia groups whose preparations for what they deem a “second civil war” actually predate the rise of Trump himself.

To get a better idea of what we’re dealing with here, let’s take a look at this August 17th, 2024 ProPublica article by Joshua Kaplan examining one of the most dangerous right wing extremist militias you’ve probably never heard of, the American Patriots Three Percent.

Armed and Underground: Inside the Turbulent, Secret World of an American Militia

“They were among the thousands of members of American Patriots Three Percent, a militia that has long been one of the largest in the United States and has mostly managed to avoid scrutiny. Its ranks included cops and convicted criminals, active-duty U.S. soldiers and small-business owners, truck drivers and health care professionals. Like other militias, AP3 has a vague but militant right-wing ideology, a pronounced sense of grievance and a commitment to armed action. It has already sought to shape American life through vigilante operations: AP3 members have “rounded up” immigrants at the Texas border, assaulted Black Lives Matter protesters and attempted to crack down on people casting absentee ballots.

Now with the presidential election less than 100 days away, AP3 members see the fate of their country turning on a turbulent, charged campaign. They’re certain that Democrats will try to steal — not for the first time, in their view — the White House from Donald Trump. “The next election won’t be decided at a Ballot Box,” an AP3 leader wrote several months ago in a private Telegram chat. “It’ll be decided at the ammo box.” He has said he is ready to force his way into voting centers if need be, or “whatever it takes.”

While much of this article focuses on the history, organizational methods, and leadership disputes of the AP3, the important things to understand here are three-fold. First, the fact that little has been done to prevent another coup attempt from happening has swelled the ranks of the militia and others like it. Although the American Patriots Three Percent militia initially responded to Trump’s first failed coup attempt and the ensuing crackdown by social media companies on militia organizing with despair, the fact that high profile fascists in American political life have continued to prime the pump for a second coup attempt if Trump loses the 2024 election has clearly reenergized them and lead to a significant increase in their recruiting. Of course, as the article notes, fractures in the leadership of the AP3 have lead to the group breaking up into numerous smaller right wing extremists organizations in the time since; but given the core principles these guys are organizing around, the militant activities they engaged in before the breakup, and just how quickly the AP3 in particular was able to rebuild after the January 6th failed coup attempt, this fracturing has probably made these militia groups more, not less, dangerous to democratic (such as it is) American society at large.

Secondly, AP3 and groups like it have actively cultivated relationships with fascist-sympathizers in law enforcement and politicians in anticipation of armed conflict breaking out around the 2024 U.S. election; indeed they have expressly linked their operations to obtaining power for the American political right. For the American Patriots Three Percent militia this active courting was so successful that they were able to recruit numerous police officers to the cause; even maintaining sheriffs and at least one GOP politician as “off the books” members of the militia itself. As the article notes, one AP3 leader claims that he was working so closely with law enforcement in Oklahoma City that the police asked him to “embed” a member of the militia inside Black Lives Matter protestors and “report back.” Furthermore, as FBI reporting as far back as 2015 makes clear, this strategy of fostering close relationships with law enforcement, actively recruiting murderpigs into militant right wing extremist organizations, and maintaining close ties with local reactionary government officials is not exclusive to AP3, and has become extremely common across a wide variety of violent militia and white nationalist groups in America; one needs only to look at how police and militia members in Kenosha, Wisconsin were openly cordial with each other during the Black Lives Matter protests in 2021 that ultimately lead to Kyle Rittenhouse murdering two activists, to see this relationship in action.

And third, these the vast majority of these militia organizations even beyond AP3, are dead serious about fighting a new Civil War on the side of American fascism; even if they don’t call it fascism out loud. Having latched on to Trump-world propaganda about the 2024 election being stolen by Democrats, these groups are actively training for, and organizing around the anticipation of political violence in the lead up to and aftermath of the coming 2024 U.S. presidential election this fall. While it’s certainly true that some members appear to oppose the most extremist plans for violence, there are also numerous armed right wing reactionaries and whole militia organizations who seem to relish activities like voter intimidation, rounding up the political enemies of the right, terrorist activities and even political assassinations. Furthermore the fracturing of a large militia like AP3 into numerous lesser known sub factions of armed right wing extremists would appear to make it more likely some groups “pop off” during the events surrounding the election, as individual organizers and “commanders” are left to the own rhetoric and devices in response to the power vacuum created in these movements; and if one such group, or perhaps a handful take to the streets for armed conflict, who is to say that other militias won’t join them spontaneously?

Obviously, it’s hard to predict the activities of paramilitary right wing extremist organizations precisely because their command structures are so decentralized. That having been said however, I think that if you listen to their rhetoric and observe the escalation of militia activities over the past five or so years in America, it’s impossible to ignore the reality that these guys certainly seem to think the 2024 election is a make or break moment for American fascism and groups like themselves. In that reactionary political climate, I have a hard time believing these groups are going to stay on the sidelines of a potential second Trump coup attempt. My guess is that if and when the “official” U.S. fascist movement calls for their aid, you can be assured that the American Patriots Three Percent militia, splinter movements formed from AP3, and countless other militia groups just like them, intend to respond.

Okay, so we’ve talked about what the legalist phase of a fascist coup might look like, and how irregular forces comprised of violent armed reactionaries might contribute to that takeover, but it’s important to realize that these things are unlikely to represent the entirety of a fascist coup plot in the wake of a possible Trump loss in the 2024 U.S. election; these nazis have had four years to game this scenario out, and I suspect they intend to “use the whole cow.” So what’s even more unpredictable, and destabilizing than election boards stacked with fascist loyalists, a Trump-loyal judiciary, and armed right wing militias? How about adding in violent fascist riots conjured up from the faceless, seething masses of the American right by a Trump-aligned billionaire Afrikaner supervillain who bought one of the world’s largest social media sites for that purpose, and just executed a successful dry run of the concept in Britain? Yes, I’m talking about the owner-operator of the website formerly known as Twitter, Elon Musk.

In order to get a bit more background on why I think this is a very real possibility, let’s turn to this August 18th, 2024 article by Carole Cadwalladr writing in The Guardian:

Inciting rioters in Britain was a test run for Elon Musk. Just see what he plans for America

“Because just as Brexit prefigured Donald Trump’s election in 2016, there are signs that we are again the canary in the coalmine. The same transatlantic patterns, the same playbook, the same figures. But this time with a whole new set of dangerous, unchecked technological vulnerabilities to be exploited.

The streets are – for now – quiet. The violence has been crushed. But this is Britain, where extremist political violence is someone carrying a brick and throwing a chair leg. In America, there aren’t just automatic weapons and rights to openly carry firearms, there are actual militias. Regardless of how well Harris is doing in the polls, America is facing a singularly dangerous moment, whoever wins the election.

Because as Trump has already showed us and as Jair Bolsonaro learned, it’s not even necessarily about winning any more. Or even about a single day. The entire period between the result and the inauguration is an anything-can-happen moment not just for America but for the world.

In Britain, the canary has sung. This summer we have witnessed something new and unprecedented. The billionaire owner of a tech platform publicly confronting an elected leader and using his platform to undermine his authority and incite violence. Britain’s 2024 summer riots were Elon Musk’s trial balloon.”

When Elon Musk bought Twitter, some readers accused me of being hyperbolic when I said that Musk acquired the platform to convent it into a fascism machine that would not only allow him to spread fascist ideology, and provide a safe haven for white nationalist propagandists, but also to literally direct the actions of a burgeoning Pig Empire fascist movement that he himself would be growing with his social media site. Of course, I didn’t predict the situation perfectly, but now that Elon is paying neo-nazis to generate content and spreading fascist conspiracy theories online, while using his ownership of the platform (renamed X) to influence Pig Empire elections and conjure up violent fascist mobs in Britain, I think it’s safe to say my analysis was close enough to the reality we’re facing on balance.

Let me ask you a simple question here; given Musk’s petulance, authoritarianism, and openly fascist, anti-democratic behavior over the course of the past four years, can you imagine a scenario where the candidate he’s pinned all his hopes and plans on, actually loses the 2024 U.S. election and Elon doesn’t try fire up his propaganda machine to prod hordes of nazis into contesting the results of that election, and destabilizing a potential incoming Democratic Party government? Yeah, me neither; especially given that his trial run in Britain has demonstrated to him (and the world) that he has the power to at least give it a go. At this point Musk is clearly doing so much evil supervillain shit on a global scale that I don’t think he can afford to let Trump lose; between antitrust actions, labor law violations, election interference, potential national security violations involving Russia’s war in Ukraine, and potential campaign finance violations, there’s a non-zero percent chance Musk could find himself on the wrong side of legal repercussions from a U.S. government that doesn’t owe him anything in the wake of a Harris victory. From my perspective the question isn’t whether Musk will or won’t try to call out the chuds to riot on behalf of Trump, but rather how many of those chuds will actually respond to that call when the time comes.

Of course Twitter nazis aren’t going to overturn an election by themselves; not even in a fascist-soaked political climate like the one the 2024 U.S. presidential election will occur in. Social media organizing certainly aided the January 6th first Trump coup attempt, the 2022 Canadian “Freedom Convoy” occupation of downtown Ottawa, the 2023 storming of Brazilian government buildings by Jair Bolsonaro supporters, and the recent fascist riots in Britain; but in each of those cases the state ultimately held firm. By that same measure however, with the level of planning the fascist American right seems to be engaging in here it appears highly unlikely they’ll be counting on agitated Twitter fascists alone, and if breaking far right riots in American cities are combined with white nationalist milita terrorism, corrupt GOP officials, and a pro-fascist judiciary, the scope of this threat becomes far more serious. In that light, I’m not asking whether this is possible, but rather does anyone intend to stop them?

Buckle up and put your crash helmets on my friends, because fascists aren’t known for their respect for democracy and I think we’re all in for a rough ride come November.

 

 

– Nina Illingworth

Anarcho-syndicalist writer, critic and analyst.

You can find my work at ninaillingworth.com, and on Mastodon.

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